Investment in 2011

A)  What are the different types of Investment ?

Different Types of Investments  各种投资方式

1)             Cash – Saving Account, Fixed Deposit

现金－储蓄户头、定期存款

2)            Stock Market

股票

3)            Bonds

债券

4)            Mutual Funds

信托基金

5)            Derivatives – Futures, Options, Forex

                        期货

6)             Commodities – Agricultural, Industrial, metal (Gold & silver)

农业、工业、

7)              Properties – Land, shophouses, real estate like Walton

房地产

8)            Gold

黄金

a)            Physical Gold – Jewelery, Bullion, coin

黄金－珠宝、金币

b)            Gold Share – Mining stock

黄金股票

c)              Commodities – Gold Forex, Futues

                              期货黄金

d)            Gold Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs)

                               交易型开放式指数基金

e)            Gold Account – Public Bank and Maybank

黄金户头

       9)  Insurance with cash return

             现金回酬的保险

B)  What investment is prefered in 2011 ?

  
With Malaysian Stock market price almost reaching a dangerous level and Wold Gold price is declining for the first 2 week of 2011,  investment in Gold can be an alternative especially at first quarter of the year 2011 which the gold price is normally the lowest.  What is the reason for investing in Gold ?

 

Why Invest In Gold

1.     Global Currency Debasement    -  Decline in the value of US Dollar causes the price of Gold to rise, Gold will always retain value.

2.     Investment Demand for Gold is Accelerating – Demand in gold for Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), futures…

3.     Alarming Financial Deterioration in the US - Gold is as Insurance

4.     Negative Real Interest Rates in Reserve Currency (US dollar) – dropping interest rate

5.     Dramatic Increases in Money Supply (Inflation) in the US and Other Nations – US is printing more US Dollar

6.     Existence of a Huge and Growing Gap between Mine Supply and Traditional Demand – Demand is 4200 tons while the Gold mine supply is only 2600 tons, others come from re-cycled gold

7.     Mine Supply is Anticipated to Decline in the next Three to Four Years – high cost in extraction of Gold

8.     Large Short Positions – 30-50% of Central Bank Golf is in the market for hedging and financing speculation

9.     Low Interest Rates Discourage Hedging

10.      Rising Gold Prices and Low Interest Rates Discourage Financial  Speculation on the Short Side

11.   Gold is Increasing in Popularity in China, India and Russia

12.   Gold as Money is Gaining Credence

13.      Rising Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East, Iraq, North Korea

14.     Easy to Sell and in small potion; Gold is recognized and valued every in the world

Why Gold price keep on increasing ?

影响黄金价格的因素

1、需求因素 (Demand)

a)  保值的需要 

 黄金储备一向被央行用作防范国内通胀、调节市场的重要手段。投资黄金主要  是在通货膨胀情况下，达到保值的目的

           

b)   黄金实际需求量（首饰业、工业等）的变化

         世界经济的发展速度决定了黄金的总需求，例如在微电子领域，越来越多地采用黄金作为保护层；在医学以及建筑装饰等领域，尽管科技的进步使得黄金替代品不断出现，但黄金以其特殊的金属性质使其需求量仍呈上升趋势

c)      投机性需求

   投机者根据国际国内形势，利用黄金市场上的金价波动，加上黄金期货市场的交易体制，大量“沽空”或“补进”黄金，人为地制造黄金需求假象

2.  供给因素 (Supply)

   （1）央行的黄金抛售黄金储备 (中央银行黄金储备=30,000 tons)

                   Major Central Bank Reserves (2000)

Nations & institutions	Reserves (Tonnes)
USA	8139
Germany	3469
IMF	3217
France	3025
Switzerland	2590
Italy	2452

  
      （2）地上的黄金存量　

　
　　    全球目前大约存有163,000吨黄金。

      （3）年供求量

　　    黄金的年供求量大约为4200吨，每年新产出的黄金占年供应的62%.

      （4）新的金矿开采成本　

　　　 
      （5）黄金生产国的政治、军事和经济的变动状况　　

      

3、其他因素

 l）美元汇率影响

       一般在黄金市场上有美元涨则金价跌；美元降则金价扬的规律.  由于美国不断印钞，令美元处于弱势，而且亦会推高通胀率.

2）各国的货币政策与国际黄金价格密切相关

               当某国采取宽松的货币政策时，由于利率下降，该国的货币供给增加，加大了通货膨胀的可能，会造成黄金价格的上升

3）通货膨胀对金价的影响

                 只有在短期内，物价大幅上升，引起人们恐慌，货币的单位购买力下降，金价才会明显上升

4）国际贸易、财政、外债赤字对金价的影响

       各国都会为维持本国经济不受伤害而大量储备黄金，引起市场黄金价格上涨

5）国际政局动荡、战争等

                国际上重大的政治、战争事件都将影响金价。政府为战争或为维持国内经济的平稳而支付费用、大量投资者转向黄金保值投资，这些都会扩大对黄金的需求，刺激金价上扬

6）股市行情对金价的影响

               一般来说股市下挫，金价上升。这主要体现了投资者对经济发展前景的预期，如果大家普遍对经济前景看好，则资金大量流向股市，股市投资热烈，金价下降